Two similar reports made their appearance this week regarding the end of the "melt season" for the Arctic region, and the dramatic drop off in the ice sheet. One report believes that evidence is pointing towards a total disappearance of the ice sheet by the summer of 2030, and the other report believes that a 40% drop off will occur by 2050.

The first report, released by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), represent the data at the end of the melt season, or summer. According to the report, released yearly at this time, the 2007 levels of ice in the Arctic Ocean are lower than ever before.

Dr Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the Boulder University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center, says that "It’s amazing. It’s simply fallen off a cliff and we’re still losing ice."

The report was blunt in its appraisal of the current conditions, stating that "As of today (September 3), ice extent in 2007 was 1 million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) less than the same day in 2005." Sea ice normally stops melting and begins its regrowth sometime in September, and according to reports, that is still a few weeks away. "The bottom line," the report states, is that "2007 has already unseated the 2005 record, but we don’t yet know by how much."

It is as a result of these figures that the estimate has arisen that by 2030 there will be no more summer ice if the current rate of drop-off continues.

In fact, the drop off is so total that the Northwest Passage, the space that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans together, is now almost completely open. It was only a hundred years ago that it would have taken over two years to find a safe passage through what was then thick and compact ice. Researchers also believe that the northeast passage (not yet capitalized due to its unpopularity apparently) could open later this year.

The second report, conducted by James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, and Muyin Wang, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington in Seattle, sets a different, yet no less frightening, statistic.

These results — that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean’s ice coverage will drop by 40% — are based upon a study of national and international computer models that match up with what we already know, with a baseline period between 1979-1999. This sort of analysis has been used a lot of late, implementing new statistical advances to predict the future.

For example, if we are to predict the future 30 years with new technology, but with no way to see if we are right, then all we can do is use that same technology to predict a 30 year period of which we already have the information.

So by predicting the period between 79 and 99, Overland and Wang were able to gain a level of certainty, before moving on to predict the future.

"We wanted to assess how much confidence we can have in regional projections of sea ice from the 20 computer models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report," said Overland. "Our purpose was to first ensure that our models could replicate observations of the baseline conditions during the 1979-1999 period before considering 21st century projections. Our results present a consistent picture: there is a substantial loss of sea ice for most models by 2050."

Two reports and two seemingly separate answers, but with no less dire consequences for the surrounding areas, and the entire planet. Both reports conclude that there is imminent danger for the surrounding ecosystems and animal populations, including the polar bear.

The polar bear lives only in the Arctic region, and due to the significant habitat loss caused as a result of diminishing ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean, the polar bear has been moved on to the endangered species list by the Natural Resources Defense Council. Andrew Wetzler, Director of the Endangered Species Project said in April that "the plight of these animals is critical, and so is the sense that the changes affecting them are eventually going to affect us."

However, it is not only the polar bear that is suffering from this, but the planet as a whole. The large ice sheets at the north and south of our planet have one purpose above all others, and that is to reflect some of the warmth that is directed at us from the sun. With the lessening ice coverage, the amount of light reflected lessens, and the amount of absorption by the darker waters increases. This naturally leads to a warming of the oceans, which further affects currents such as the Gulf Stream, which subsequently has major impact on the surrounding countries such as the US and Britain.

The cause of the severe drop off is not certain, but some scientists believe that it can be linked back to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions caused by that pesky race of humans covering the planets surface. Dr Mark Serreze believes that "The rules are starting to change and what’s changing the rules is the input of greenhouse gases. This year puts the exclamation mark on a series of record lows that tell us something is happening."

Many skeptics will continue to hound those of us who believe that we as a race are perpetuating a crime on our own planet by saying that everything that is happening is all part of the natural cycle of events. But as Serreze says, this is not happening because of humans, but the rules that are in place to guide what is happening naturally are "starting to change."

National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)